Fumio Kirshida, the current premier of Japan, has an advantage over the former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated a year ago.
This power vacuum resulted in a decline of the faction’s impact, allowing Kishida the ability to govern the party as well as the government effectively in the absence formidable rivals.
On July 8, 2022 the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida receives reporters at his Tokyo office, while former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is confirmed dead following a shooting in Nara. (Kyodo)
Kishida has had to balance the power between Abe’s backers and other factions within the Liberal Democratic Party.
Experts say that without a strong leader such as Abe, the largest group of 100 members in both chambers of parliament could break apart. This scenario would likely be good news for Kishida.
In the LDP’s history, which has dominated Japan politics since 1955, the largest faction of the LDP has played an important role in many decision-making processes. This is especially true in selecting the party leader, who becomes the prime minister.
Abe, Japan’s longest serving premier, has maintained his influence even after leaving office in 2020 due to health issues. He became the leader of the LDP’s largest faction the following year. This led to him being criticized for attempting to be a “kingmaker”.
Abe was shot to death on the 8th of July, last year in Nara in western Japan during an election speech by a man, who according to his indictment made his own gun.
Since Abe’s assassination in April, his powerful faction called Seiwaken, or the Seiwa Policy Study Group, has not been able to nominate a successor. Some members are aiming to create a collective leadership, to maintain unity and avoid fragmentation.
Participants said that at its general meeting on Thursday, the faction deferred again a decision about how it should run, as senior members were unable to reach a consensus.
The group had been thought to exert considerable influence on Kishida’s administration, but its decline became apparent when, in June, the LDP chose not to nominate the member who assumed Abe’s seat for a newly-established constituency that included his hometown, Shimonoseki in Yamaguchi Prefecture.
In the merged district, the LDP will have to choose between two incumbents as there are only three House of Representatives Seats in the Western Japan Prefecture. This is part of a nationwide electoral district reform.
In the end, Yoshimasa Haashi, who is currently Foreign Minister, was elected to fill this position. Kishida won the second position in his faction rather than the other member of parliament who was elected to the by-election held in April with the support of Abe’s widow Akie.
Hiroshi Muriyama, the chairman of LDP’s election strategy committee, led his own small group and explained that Hayashi had been chosen as a candidate in the new district because he was “certain to win.”
Analysts claim that Hayashi would not have moved to another constituency had Abe still been alive. They emphasize the fact that without Abe, the biggest faction has seen its political influence wane.
Kishida has maintained his administration despite his weak political base within the LDP, a series mishaps including the resignations by four Cabinet Ministers and scandals surrounding his son and his aides. He took office in October of 2021.
Masahiro, Iwasaki is a professor of political sciences at Nihon University. He said that Kishida was able to remain in power because there were few significant candidates, particularly in the party’s largest group.
Takuma Ohamazaki is a political consultant at J.A.G. Japan pointed out that groups with 100 or more members have “often experienced divisions” within the political arena of Japan. Kishida also wants to see this.
A large screen in Tokyo’s Akihabara district shows the news that Shinzo Abe was killed by a gunman during a campaign speech in Nara in western Japan for the House of Councillors elections on July 10. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo
Ohamazaki claimed that Kishida appears to be “relishing the circumstances where Abe’s faction is without leader” and a leader who can unite many lawmakers. He believes a possible split within the group will serve as “tailwinds” for him.
Instead of selecting a leader like two veteran lawmakers, who have tentatively led the faction, five senior members are asking for collective leadership. These include Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Mathsuno and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura.
The other three are Koichi Haida, the LDP’s policy chief, Tsuyoshi Tamaggi, the Diet Affairs chief Tsuyoshi Tsagi and Hiroshige Seko, the secretary general of the LDP in the House of Councillors.
Ohamazaki added, “It’s undeniable, these figures don’t have the same popularity among voters as other faction leaders, even though the leader is the most important candidate to be the president and prime minister of the party.”
Iwasaki agreed, stating that none of the five legislators would be able to lead the faction. This could lead to the group dividing into two or three groups after the first anniversary Abe’s demise.
Iwasaki stated that if this is true, it would “benefit” Kishida as he wouldn’t need to consider the actions and development of the largest intraparty faction in order to form a long-term administration.
The next LDP Presidential race will take place in 2024. Abe was prime minister for a little over a year in 2006, and almost eight years following his comeback in 2012.